Expected Earthquake, Volcanic or Storm Activity for the Next 1 to 5 Days
Are YOU Prepared?
December 9, 2005
By Stan Deyo
USA: West Coast just west of the Juan de Fuca Plate. The area is not aligned along a known fault line but it does appear to vector inland toward Mt. St. Helens... so I have circled it for consideration..
Japan: East, offshore from Tokyo showing sign of small quake.
South Korea: Showing signal of small quake.
Taiwan: Showing small signal.
Sumatra: Showing very subtle signal about the size I would normally call a medium scale quake. May just be a weather event though.
Australia: There is a long signal stretching out into the Pacific off Australia near Mackay. A signal has appeared here off and on for the last three weeks; so I am marking the area as a possible seismic event. There is a very subtle fracture running underneath it. If this were over a known and active rupture zone, I would call this a large seismic event.... We will keep an eye on the situation.
New Zealand: The Fiji Basin is showing a medium strength seismic signal and the southern tip of the Kermadec Trench is showing the same.
Southern Mexico near Guatemala at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec showing medium seismic signal.
Africa: Seismic stress showing again on the west side of the southern tip near Namibia. This signal usually indicates seismic events about to occur much farther inland along the way to Lake Tanganyika.
India: near the Maldives showing small to medium seismic strength.
Summary: Looking at today's SW Ring of Fire,.... I see signs of pressure from New Zealand to Japan with answering pressure on the NE side of the Pacific Ring of Fire at the Juan de Fuca plate. The signals are small except for the Australian one.... We wait for more data....
Please note that when no text summary is provided, look for circles on the maps. These always indicate my areas of concern.
Summaries are written as time permits. These NCODA Earthquake Maps are a free service outside of the normal workday and depending on the data, they may require several hours to analyze. Some days it simply is not possible to provide an additional written summary. Stan Deyo
For an explanation of how these maps are produced, please see this area.
Stan's analysis shows areas of possible earthquake or volcanic activity, or extreme storm conditions for the next 1 to 5 days. Pay particular attention to areas marked by white circles. The continuous yellow line denotes plate tectonic boundaries as well as the Ring of Fire. Go to the raw data map where it is easier to see the areas of concern. Go to Stan's earthquake map archives.
NEW FEATURE: The circles in varying shades of red are quake prediction zones Stan made from 1 to 4 days ago - with dark red being 1 day ago and the lightest red being 4 days ago. White circles are Stan's prediction zones for today. Tomorrow these white circles will become dark red and will get lighter as each day passes until they are removed.
These circles indicate the stresses in an area and warn of a probable quake in an area. The areas do not always convert to a quake. When a quake does occur and has been in or fairly close to the outer radius of a circle I have drawn over a given fault zone area then it is counted as a "hit". When stress signals go into a large land mass I have to estimate the radius of the circle and the vector to the nearest major fault on the land mass.
DEYO NOTES: For earthquake maps, see the USGS "shake maps" (click anywhere on the global map for a closer view). For quakes USGS may not list, go to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center's map and scroll to the bottom of the page for a global view. You can compare these maps for the next 5 days to Stan's NCODA maps, to see the hits of his seismic target zones (white circles).
Earthquake lists can viewed at EMCS and at USGS.
Ecuador's Geophysics Institute at the National Polytechnic School, does not list quakes on a daily basis as does the USGS and other entities, but when there are significant events, they post them in PDFs.
Disclaimer: Some of the forecast stress areas can be in error up to 30% due to cloud cover variations and false signals from buoys.